On Sunday, Bangladesh, a nation of 170 million folks, will go to the polls to elect a brand new authorities within the nation’s twelfth normal election.
However in a rustic with a chequered historical past of violence and protests in opposition to doubtful polls, the vote is already courting controversy.
Since 1971, when the nation broke away from Pakistan, solely 4 of Bangladesh’s 11 elections have been thought-about to be “free and fair”. The remainder have continuously been mired in violence, protests and allegations of vote rigging.
This yr, following Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s refusal to just accept the opposition Bangladesh Nationwide Celebration’s (BNP) calls for for a impartial caretaker authorities to conduct the polls, the BNP has chosen to boycott the elections. Caretaker governments have previously delivered outcomes usually thought-about credible – and, normally, a win for the opposition.
There may be widespread hypothesis that this vote – which might see Hasina win a fourth consecutive and a fifth total time period in workplace – can be tampered with. Once more.
The worldwide neighborhood has expressed concern over the conduct of the vote. Charles Whiteley, the European Union ambassador to the nation, mentioned in a letter to the Bangladesh Election Fee that the bloc wouldn’t ship a full observer group, as a result of “it is not sufficiently clear whether the necessary conditions will be met.”
The nation additionally deployed the army on Wednesday to observe the elections amid fears of violence.
Right here’s a potted historical past of Bangladesh’s controversial elections.
1973 – Awami League wins after Bangladesh separation from Pakistan
After overseeing the breakaway of Bangladesh from Pakistan, the ruling Awami League, chaired by independence chief Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, carried out the nation’s first-ever elections on March 7, 1973.
However, regardless of being the favourites to win, the Awami League engineered the kidnapping of opposition leaders and, in some constituencies, stuffed poll papers. The celebration then received 293 of the 300 seats in parliament in a landslide that just about eradicated different political events in the home, together with Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal and Bashani, which received one parliamentary seat every. These polls marked the start of autocratic rule within the new nation. In 1974, Rahman adopted up by banning all opposition events in addition to most press members from parliament, primarily turning Bangladesh right into a one-party state.
1979 -Eighties – One-party, army rule and sham elections
Mujibur Rahman was assassinated in 1975 and the Bangladeshi army took energy for the subsequent decade and a half. Presidential and parliamentary elections between 1978 and 1979 have been held underneath the management of former military chief Ziaur Rahman, credited with instituting a multi-party system and rescuing the distressed state establishments from Mujibur Rahman’s rule. His newly based Bangladesh Nationalist Celebration (BNP) received an awesome majority. The Awami League, now the primary opposition celebration, claimed the vote had been rigged.
In 1981, following Ziaur Rahman’s assassination, his deputy, Abdus Sattar, held normal elections on November 15. The BNP once more received with 65 p.c of the vote.
Hussain Muhammad Ershad, who was military chief, took energy in a 1982 coup. The Could 7, 1986 parliamentary elections and the October 15, 1986 presidential vote that adopted noticed his Jatiya Celebration win the overwhelming majority amid opposition boycotts. The elections had low attendance and Ershad’s authorities was reported to have padded the numbers. It was extensively seen as a sham.
In 1988, one other extensively discredited vote was held amid intense protests calling for Ershad’s elimination. The Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina (Mujibur Rahman’s daughter), and the BNP, underneath Khaleda Zia (Ziaur Rahman’s widow) banded collectively to guide the protests, ensuing within the in style rebellion of 1990 that pressured Ershad to resign.
1991 – Interim, caretaker authorities
All main events took half within the February 27, 1991 elections underneath a caretaker authorities led by Shahabuddin Ahmed, the chief justice of the Supreme Courtroom and a future president. The elections have been seen as impartial and delivered a slim victory to Zia’s BNP, which overtook the Awami League with 250,000 votes. The BNP went on to safe 140 parliament seats, whereas the Awami League clinched 88 seats.
1996 – BNP administration lasts 12 days earlier than Sheikh Hasina wins
One more controversial election adopted this one, nonetheless. On February 15, 1996, opposition events boycotted scheduled normal elections and solely 21 p.c of registered voters turned out. Tensions between the Awami League and the ruling BNP had simmered over in 1994, when parliamentary by-elections have been held. The opposition claimed the votes have been rigged and began to press for Zia’s resignation and for her handover to a caretaker authorities – as occurred in 1991. That didn’t occur, so in February 1996, the BNP received elections unchallenged.
The administration solely lasted 12 days, following strikes by opposition parliament members. On June 12, 1996, new elections happened, this time underneath a caretaker authorities. It noticed a big turnout of voters – at slightly below 75 p.c – and was thought-about impartial. Sheikh Hasina received her first time period with the Awami League. The celebration secured 146 parliament seats, simply forward of the BNP which received 116 seats.
2001 elections – Energy switches to BNP
The 2001 elections happened with out a lot drama in October, as soon as once more underneath a caretaker authorities. The earlier parliament (the seventh within the nation’s historical past) was the primary ever to finish its five-year time period and had been dissolved in July.
Some 1,935 candidates together with members of 54 events and 484 independents ran for 300 seats, with 30 extra seats reserved for ladies.
Voter turnout was excessive – 75 p.c – and the BNP received 193 seats with near 40 p.c of the nationwide vote. Whereas the Awami League additionally received over 40 p.c of the nationwide vote, it solely secured 62 seats underneath Bangladesh’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
Khaleda Zia, chief of the BNP, was invited to kind a authorities. Whereas the elections themselves have been uneventful – worldwide observers declared them to be “free and fair” – there was some violence concentrating on minority Hindus within the aftermath.
2006 – 2008 political disaster
Elections that ought to have taken place in 2006 by no means occurred as a result of the outgoing BNP and the primary opposition, Awami League, did not agree on a candidate to move the required caretaker authorities.
On the finish of October, the nation’s president, Iajuddin Ahmed declared himself chief of the caretaker authorities and introduced that elections would happen in January 2007.
A bitter row over pretend names being included on the listing of candidates led to riots and violence within the nation – hundreds of protesters blockaded the nation’s transport system and the nation descended right into a political disaster lasting till 2008.
The army stepped in when Ahmed declared a nationwide emergency and the Awami League withdrew from the elections in protest.
2008 elections – highest-ever turnout
Elections have been lastly held on December 29, 2008, with an 80 p.c turnout – the best the nation had ever seen. This time the Awami League shaped a coalition – the Grand Alliance – with different opposition events and was led by Sheikh Hasina. Khaleda Zia as soon as once more led the BNP.
The Awami alliance received in a landslide, taking 230 seats with 48 p.c of the favored vote. The BNP and its allies, who had additionally shaped a coalition, took simply 30 seats with 32.5 p.c of the vote.
The military-run caretaker authorities formally handed over energy in January 2009.
2014 elections and a crackdown on opposition
Following the political disaster of 2006 – 2008, the Awami League determined to abolish the requirement for a caretaker authorities to supervise elections in 2011. Hasina, the prime minister, was extremely important of the earlier military-led caretaker authorities which had delayed elections for 2 years and which, she identified, was unelected.
A parliamentary vote on the modification to take away the caretaker provision was handed by 291 to 1 after it was boycotted by the primary opposition BNP.
A crackdown on the opposition adopted. Previous to the elections that have been held on January 5, 2014, BNP chief Zia was put underneath home arrest and there have been widespread stories of violence in direction of different opposition members. Opposition events, together with the BNP, boycotted the vote and Hasina’s Awami League received in a landslide, clinching 234 seats in parliament.
2018 – Ruling Awami League takes supermajority
In 2018, digital voting was launched in Bangladesh. However the BNP and different opposition events accused the ruling Awami League of rigging the final elections on December 30, 2018. Stories of violence in opposition to opposition BNP members and supporters, in addition to voter suppression, marred the polls once more. The federal government additionally shut down cellular web within the lead-up to election day, claiming it wished to cease the unfold of pretend information across the vote.
Hasina’s Awami League, after merging with the Jatiya Celebration to kind the Grand Alliance, received in one other landslide. The Grand Alliance took greater than 90 p.c of parliament seats. Kamal Hossain who led the Jatiya Oikya Entrance – BNP alliance following a ban on Zia for corruption convictions, received simply seven seats. Hossain criticised the elections and referred to as for them to be held once more, with no success.
2024 – BNP boycotts as soon as once more
With its calls for for a caretaker authorities nonetheless being ignored by Hasina’s ruling celebration, the BNP is once more boycotting Sunday’s elections. The celebration has led mass strikes and demonstrations to press dwelling its request, however to no avail.
The ruling Awami League is usually seen to have the electoral system largely underneath its affect by now, and these elections are anticipated to be a replay of current polls. Prime Minister Hasina is prone to win a majority for her fifth time period in workplace, sealing her authorities because the longest-serving administration in Bangladesh’s historical past.