Our tipster Jones Is aware of gives his betting perception and evaluation throughout all 10 Premier League video games as he hunts some worth in Sky Wager’s markets.
Everton vs Tottenham, Saturday 12.30pm
I am dropping religion with Everton, who look to be operating out of steam and confidence in entrance of aim.
It is now simply 4 objectives scored of their final 9 video games. Sean Dyche’s staff are certainly going to want to attain twice to win this one as Spurs are dependable at discovering the web having scored of their final 34 Premier League video games. The away aspect look truthful sufficient at 4/6 with Sky Wager on the draw no wager market.
I am heading for the participant offsides market although for a greater angle in the place Dominic Calvert-Lewin is price an curiosity at 3/1 with Sky Wager to be caught offside two or extra occasions. The Spurs offside entice is not fairly Aston Villa ranges of bravery however they squeeze the sport very aggressively too – as proven by their per 90 common of three.6 offsides in opposition to over their final 15 Premier League video games.
Calvert-Lewin might be tasked with taking part in on that line, being the goal of Everton’s direct balls ahead.
No staff have tried extra lengthy passes this season (1,366) and solely Liverpool have tried extra passes into the opposition half than Everton (1,424) – two key pointers in direction of direct play into the attacker. Calvert-Lewin himself has been flagged offside 10 occasions in his final 9 begins while opposition centre-forwards Ivan Toney and Rasmus Hojlund each had been flagged twice in Tottenham’s final two video games.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Brighton vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Brighton’s full capitulation at Luton maybe should not have come as a shock.
Roberto De Zerbi’s aspect have gained simply three of their final 16 Premier League video games, scoring simply 20 objectives in that interval. Solely Everton, Crystal Palace and Sheffield United have scored fewer in the identical timeframe. That is now starting to change into a wholesome pattern dimension – and it is backed up by a drastic decline of their attacking metrics below De Zerbi.
Since beating Bournemouth in September, Brighton’s objectives, anticipated objectives, photographs and large possibilities created per 90 have plummeted in comparison with the place they had been in direction of the again finish of final season.
Roy Hodgson is aware of precisely methods to play the frustration recreation on Brighton’s model having restricted them to simply 4 objectives in his final 5 video games in opposition to them as Palace boss. Six of the final 9 conferences between these two have completed 1-1 while all these encounters, bar one, have fallen below the two.5 objectives line. Palace look an awesome wager to keep away from defeat within the double probability market at 11/10 with Sky Wager. A Palace win to nil at 9/1 additionally should not be sniffed at.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Crystal Palace double probability (11/10 with Sky Wager)
Burnley vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Fulham are due a win at Burnley.
Someway the Clarets have remained unbeaten within the final 31 matches at Turf Moor in all competitions, successful 25 occasions. It is a run that spans 73 years. Outstanding. Ideas with the Fulham followers on the market that recurrently make the journey there.
This could be the sport although to interrupt the hoodoo. Sky Wager have them at 7/5 to choose up three factors – that is a 42 per cent probability. Bear in mind, Burnley, albeit enhancing, have the worst residence file within the Premier League, successful simply 4 factors from 11 video games, dropping 9. Away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Newcastle vs Luton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Signal me up for the full nook depend.
When Newcastle are at their greatest, they’re a corner-winning machine. They gained 270 corners final season within the Premier League, probably the most of any staff. I have been ready for them to return to kind with eyes firmly mounted on their nook depend strains and now’s the time to again them following their very spectacular efficiency at Aston Villa.
In the meantime, common readers know all about my obsession with Luton’s capacity to win corners. They racked up seven at residence to Brighton, taking their tally to 49 corners of their final six fixtures. I am totally anticipating each groups to play with confidence and attacking intent, so corner-winning alternatives needs to be rife at each ends.
Premier League video games are averaging 10.6 corners per 90 minutes this season, up on final yr’s common of 10.1, in all probability owing to the additional added time. This recreation ought to surpass that quantity, due to this fact the 5/6 with Sky Wager on 11 or extra corners within the match being awarded charges as a unbelievable worth play. As do 14 or extra (3/1), 15 or extra (9/2) and 16 or extra (7/1) – all of which look possible to offer you an awesome run at good costs.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: 11 or extra complete match corners (4/5 with Sky Wager)
Sheffield United vs Aston Villa, Saturday 5.30pm, stay on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
My needle barometer is pointing in direction of excessive probability of playing cards and chaos below the Bramall Lane lights. It is a fixture with a latest pattern of spice, with six yellow playing cards in a tetchy reverse recreation and crimson playing cards proven to Jon Egan and Phil Jagielka within the earlier two encounters. If Sheffield United can keep within the recreation, frustrations within the away ranks could develop.
I need to again playing cards.
The yellow card depend in Premier League matches stay at a file excessive ranges of 4.47 per 90.
There was a slight drop off in comparison with August and September as referees have change into just a little extra lenient in terms of timewasting however the general common yellows per 90 for October onwards remains to be a wholesome 4.32.
All six of Sheffield United’s latest residence video games have seen the 50+ bookings factors land as Chris Wilder has put in a extra aggressive strategy.
In the meantime, each one in all Aston Villa’s final 11 Premier League video games have seen 40+ complete reserving factors with seven of these producing 50+ or extra. Bear in mind we get the bonus of a crimson card counting for 25 reserving factors in direction of that complete, too, if one is proven. The 5/6 with Sky Wager for 50+ reserving factors is a stunning slice of worth with additionally the upper strains of 60+ (15/8) and 70+ (9/4) additionally price a re-examination.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: 50+ reserving factors (4/5 with Sky Wager)
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm
Nottingham Forest’s key to success below Nuno Espirito Santo might be how profitable their counter-attacking recreation works, particularly away from residence as proven of their spectacular win at Newcastle. That does not bode effectively for them for this encounter although as they’re up in opposition to a Bournemouth aspect which might be notoriously exhausting to counter-attack. The Cherries have shipped simply 1.38 price of anticipated objectives from quick breaks this season – it is the third greatest file within the Premier League in terms of that metric. Forest could battle to trigger issues.
Including Dominic Solanke to attain to a house win contemplating he is discovered the web 10 occasions in final 11 appearances in all competitions is smart at 6/4 with Sky Wager ought to present punters with a great run.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Chelsea vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm
I do not need any a part of the 4/7 with Sky Wager on a Chelsea win.
Are you able to belief them to get again on a constructive footing following such a lacklustre and timid efficiency at Liverpool? I definitely cannot particularly in opposition to a Wolves aspect that beat them 2-1 over the Christmas interval.
Gary O’Neil’s aspect do carry a giant menace within the closing third to the extent they’ve scored 33 objectives this season – that is two greater than they managed in the entire of final season. The three they bought of their defeat to Manchester United makes it 18 objectives scored of their final eight matches.
Wolves’ aim menace is not actually being revered by the market with Pedro Neto and Matheus Cunha each priced up at 4/1 to attain. That appears beneficiant in a recreation Wolves are able to avoiding defeat in.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Manchester United vs West Ham, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
West Ham are sixth within the Premier League and have misplaced simply one in all their final 11 Premier League video games.
But there’s clear discontent within the stands – for good purpose too.
West Ham’s underlying efficiency metrics this season scream ‘overachievement’ loud and clear. Based mostly on anticipated objectives for and in opposition to, equated into factors gained, West Ham have 11 factors greater than their efficiency knowledge exhibits. The addition of Kalvin Phillips has solely supplied David Moyes with extra issues to take care of when it comes to his stability in midfield.
I used to be anticipating Manchester United to be shorter than the three/5 with Sky Wager on supply contemplating their elevated productiveness in entrance of aim since Christmas, scoring 10 of their final 4 video games and Rasmus Hojlund wanting the half as the point of interest. Residence win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Arsenal vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, stay on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Large. A Tremendous Sunday to savour.
A win for Liverpool could catapult them into title favourites with Sky Wager and would finish Arsenal’s hopes of touchdown the primary prize. Jurgen Klopp will know that. He isn’t one to shirk such alternatives both. Liverpool might be Liverpool.
The jeopardy is large for Arsenal, who’re nonetheless to show they possess the attacking metrics to combine it with Manchester Metropolis and Klopp’s males on the enterprise finish of this season. It appears to be like a two-horse race to me.
What is the wager then?
It have to be a pro-Liverpool angle primarily based on their attacking metrics of late, the place they’ve averaged 22.5 photographs per 90 minutes of their final 11 matches. And regardless of him letting us down for the 8/1 greatest wager treble in midweek, I am protecting the religion with Curtis Jones and his photographs costs. He is had 22 photographs in his final eight fixtures. The two/1 with Sky Wager on him firing two or extra does make loads of enchantment.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Brentford vs Manchester Metropolis, Monday 8pm, stay on Sky Sports activities
This would possibly not be a simple night time for Pep Guardiola’s aspect however these taking them on at 4/11 with Sky Wager are prone to find yourself with burnt fingers such is their focus and supreme reliability at the moment of yr. Metropolis gained 14 of 15 Premier League video games between the Twenty second-Thirty sixth Premier League gameweeks final season. That is their time.
My punting instincts have taken me to the participant fouls market the place Ruben Dias charges as a good wager to make two or extra fouls at 100/30 with Sky Wager. The Brentford entrance two of Neal Maupay and Ivan Toney carry the nuisance issue to the desk in that they’re very good at successful fouls.
Since being paired collectively of their final two fixtures, they’ve gained 12 fouls between them. It is a ratio that ought to keep constant so it definitely brings Dias into the combo when it comes to his foul likelihood. He is made two or extra fouls in seven of his final 13 begins, making 17 fouls in complete. He’ll combat hearth with hearth up in opposition to the Brentford duo. He is a giant value.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
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