© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Brigadier Common Esmail Qaani, the top of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Drive, speaks throughout a ceremony marking the anniversary of the dying of senior Iranian army commander Mohammad Hejazi, in Tehran, Iran April 14, 2022. Majid Asgarip
By Ahmed Rasheed, Parisa Hafezi and Timour Azhari
BAGHDAD (Reuters) – A go to by the commander of Iran’s elite Quds Drive to Baghdad has led to a pause in assaults on U.S. troops by Iran-aligned teams in Iraq, a number of Iranian and Iraqi sources advised Reuters, saying it was an indication Tehran desires to forestall a broader battle.
Esmail Qaani met representatives of a number of of the armed teams in Baghdad airport on Jan. 29, lower than 48 hours after Washington blamed the teams for the killing of three U.S. troopers on the Tower 22 outpost in Jordan, the sources stated.
Qaani, whose predecessor was killed by a U.S. drone close to the identical airport 4 years in the past, advised the factions that drawing American blood risked a heavy U.S. response, 10 of the sources stated.
He stated the militias ought to lie low, to keep away from U.S. strikes on their senior commanders, destruction of key infrastructure or perhaps a direct retaliation in opposition to Iran, the sources stated.
Whereas one faction didn’t initially conform to Qaani’s request, most others did. The following day, elite Iran-backed group Kataib Hezbollah introduced it was suspending assaults.
Since Feb. 4 there have been no assaults on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, in comparison with greater than 20 within the two weeks earlier than Qaani’s go to, a part of a surge in violence from the teams in opposition to Israel’s struggle in Gaza.
“Without Qaani’s direct intervention it would have been impossible to convince Kataib Hezbollah to halt its military operations to deescalate the tension”, a senior commander in one of many Iran-aligned Iraqi armed teams stated.
Qaani and the Quds Drive, the arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards that works with allied armed teams from Lebanon to Yemen, didn’t instantly reply to requests for remark for this story. Kataib Hezbollah and one different group couldn’t be reached for remark. The U.S. White Home and Pentagon additionally didn’t instantly reply.
Qaani’s go to has been talked about in Iraqi media however the particulars of his message and the impression on decreasing assaults haven’t been beforehand reported.
For this account, Reuters talked to 3 Iranian officers, a senior Iraqi safety official, three Iraqi Shi’ite politicians, 4 sources in Iran-backed Iraqi armed teams and 4 Iraq-focused diplomats.
IRAQ-U.S. TALKS RESUME
The obvious success of the go to highlights the affect Iran wields with Iraqi armed teams, who alternate between constructing strain and cooling tensions to additional their aim of pushing U.S. forces out of Iraq.
The federal government in Baghdad, a uncommon ally of each Tehran and Washington, is making an attempt to forestall the nation once more changing into a battlefield for international powers and requested Iran to assist rein within the teams after the Jordan assault, 5 of the sources stated.
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani “has worked with all relevant parties both inside and outside Iraq, warning them,” that escalation “will destabilise Iraq and the region,” Sudani’s international affairs advisor Farhad Alaadin advised Reuters when requested to substantiate Qaani’s go to and the request for assist to rein in armed teams.
The assault “played into the hand of the Iraqi government.” a Shi’ite politician from the ruling coalition stated. Following the following lull in hostilities, on Feb. 6 talks resumed with the USA about ending the U.S. presence in Iraq.
A number of Iran-aligned events and armed teams in Iraq additionally want talks somewhat than assaults to finish the U.S. troop presence. Washington has been unwilling to barter a change to its army posture underneath fireplace, involved it will embolden Iran.
The US at the moment has some 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria on an advise and help mission. They’re a part of a world coalition deployed in 2014 to struggle Islamic State, primarily within the west of the nation and japanese Syria.
A U.S. State Division spokesperson, who declined to touch upon Qaani’s go to to Baghdad, stated the U.S. presence in Iraq would transition to “an enduring bilateral security relationship.”
The US asserts that Iran has a excessive degree of management over what it calls Iranian “proxies” within the area. Tehran says it has funded, suggested and educated allies however they determine operations on their very own.
One other U.S. official recognised Iran’s function in decreasing assaults however stated it was not clear if the lull would maintain.
“We need to see more work done on the ground,” by Iraq to manage the militias, a separate, senior, U.S. official stated, noting just some arrests had been made after a December mortar assault on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad.
AIRPORT SECURITY
With Iran bracing for a U.S. response to the Jordan assault, Qaani made the go to fast and didn’t go away the airport, “for strict security reasons and fearing for his safety,” the senior Iraqi safety supply stated.
The strike in 2020 that killed former Quds Drive chief Qassem Soleimani outdoors the airport adopted an assault Washington additionally blamed on Kataib Hezbollah that killed a U.S. contractor, and on the time sparked fears of a regional struggle. Together with Soleimani, the drone killed former Kataib Hezbollah chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.
Each Tehran and Baghdad needed to keep away from an identical escalation this time spherical, 9 sources stated.
“The Iranians learned their lesson from the liquidation of Soleimani and did not want this to be repeated,” the senior Iraqi safety supply stated.
A high-ranking Iranian safety official stated: “Commander Qaani’s visit was successful, though not entirely, as not all Iraqi groups consented to de-escalate.” One smaller however very lively group, Nujaba, stated it will proceed assaults, arguing that U.S. forces would solely go away by pressure.
It stays to be seen how lengthy the pause holds. An umbrella group representing hardline factions vowed to renew operations within the wake of the U.S. killing of senior Kataib Hezbollah chief Abu Baqir al-Saadi in Baghdad on Feb. 7.
Saadi was additionally a member of the Fashionable Mobilisation Forces (PMF), a state safety company that started off as mostly-Shi’ite armed teams near Iran that fought in opposition to Islamic State, highlighting simply how intertwined the Iran-backed armed teams are with the Iraqi state.
U.S.-led forces invaded Iraq and toppled former chief Saddam Hussein in 2003, earlier than withdrawing in 2011.
Shi’ite armed teams who spent years attacking U.S. forces within the wake of the 2003 invasion went on to struggle on the identical aspect as, although not in direct partnership with, U.S. troopers in opposition to Islamic State till it was territorially defeated.
Within the subsequent years, rounds of tit-for-tat preventing with the remaining U.S. troops escalated till the U.S. killing of Soleimani and Muhandis.
These killings prompted Iraq’s parliament to vote for the exit of international forces. Prime Minister Sudani’s authorities got here to energy in October 2022 on a promise to implement that call, although it was not seen as a precedence, authorities officers have stated.
The state of affairs modified once more with the onset of the Gaza struggle.
Dozens of assaults and several other rounds of U.S. responses, together with the killing of a senior Nujaba chief in Baghdad on Jan. 5, led Sudani to declare that the coalition had change into a magnet for instability and to provoke talks for its finish.
He has saved the door open to continued U.S. presence in a distinct format by way of a bilateral deal.
Iraqi officers have stated they hope the present lull will maintain so the talks, anticipated to take months if not longer, can attain a conclusion.
At a funeral service for Saadi, senior Kataib Hezbollah official and PMF army chief Abdul Aziz al-Mohammedawi vowed a response for the most recent killing, however stopped wanting asserting a return to violence. The response could be primarily based on consensus, he stated, together with with the federal government.
“Revenge for the martyr Abu Baqir al-Saadi means the exit of all foreign forces from Iraq. We wont accept anything less than that,” he stated.