Islamabad, Pakistan: Within the 10 days between March 16 and March 26, Pakistan witnessed 5 completely different assaults, three in its northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and two in its southwestern Balochistan province, ensuing within the deaths of not less than 18 folks.
All 5 assaults had been suicide bombings, by which not less than 12 army personnel, 5 Chinese language nationals and one Pakistani citizen died.
Whereas the nation has skilled a dramatic surge in violence over the past yr, the newest sequence of assaults, their targets, and the audacity with which they had been carried out might sign a brand new chapter in Pakistan’s struggle in opposition to armed teams, say analysts.
The final three assaults, coming so shortly in succession, seem to focus on Chinese language pursuits in Pakistan. First, armed fighters attacked Pakistan’s Gwadar port in Balochistan, which was constructed with Chinese language assist. Then, an armed group attacked certainly one of Pakistan’s largest naval bases, additionally in Balochistan, citing Chinese language funding within the area as their motivation. And eventually, fighters focused Chinese language engineers engaged on a Chinese language-funded hydropower challenge within the nation’s north, close to Besham metropolis.
That sample has prompted considerations inside Pakistan’s safety institution, which believes that assaults on the Chinese language in Pakistan is a part of a “larger plan” to harm the financial pursuits of the nation, in addition to sabotage ties between the nations, mentioned Iftikhar Firdous, a safety analyst and researcher on armed teams.
‘Iron brothers’
China is certainly one of Pakistan’s closest allies and has invested $62bn within the China-Pakistan Financial Hall (CPEC), an infrastructure challenge that spans a sequence of highways linking southwestern China to Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea.
The assault on Chinese language employees triggered a pointy response from Beijing. “China asks Pakistan to thoroughly investigate the incident as soon as possible, hunt down the perpetrators and bring them to justice. Meanwhile, we ask Pakistan to take effective measures to protect the safety and security of Chinese nationals, institutions, and projects in Pakistan,” its Ministry of International Affairs mentioned on March 27.
In response, the Pakistani authorities mentioned it could deliver “terrorists, and their facilitators and abettors to justice”, and introduced the formation of an investigation group to additional look at the assaults.
“Pakistan and China are close friends and iron brothers. We have no doubt that the Besham terror attack was orchestrated by the enemies of Pakistan-China friendship. Together, we will resolutely act against all such forces and defeat them,” the International Ministry mentioned in a press release issued a day later.
Chinese language pursuits have additionally been attacked repeatedly up to now. Two gunmen focused a convoy of 23 Chinese language engineers in Gwadar in August final yr, however their assault was foiled by safety officers.
In July 2021, not less than 9 Chinese language engineers engaged on a hydropower challenge had been killed when a suicide bomber rammed into their bus, in an assault that was eerily much like what unfolded on March 26.
However what differentiates the 2 assaults is that whereas incidents in Balochistan had been readily claimed by insurgent secessionist teams, the assault within the north was not claimed by any group.
Broader sample of armed assaults
The assaults in Balochistan had been claimed by the army wing of the Balochistan Liberation Military (BLA), one of many many hardline armed teams in search of to secede from Pakistan.
Balochistan is the nation’s largest province by space but in addition its poorest, regardless of being wealthy in pure assets, together with oil, coal, gold, copper and fuel reserves. This has bred accusations from many in Balochistan that successive Pakistani governments have uncared for their considerations whereas exploiting the province and benefitting “foreigners”. The province has witnessed not less than 5 rebel actions for the reason that formation of Pakistan in 1947. The federal government has been accused of initiating a violent crackdown and allegedly killing and disappearing 1000’s of ethnic Baloch who’re suspected of both being rebels or supporting the rebel.
Nonetheless, the numerous improve in violent incidents within the nation up to now two years has coincided with the return of the Afghan Taliban to energy in August 2021. In 2023, greater than 650 assaults killed almost 1,000 folks, principally these related to the safety forces.
The teams finishing up assaults embody the regional affiliate of the Islamic State, known as the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, ISKP (ISIS-Okay), and different, extra obscure organisations akin to Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP) amongst others.
The largest problem to the the Pakistani state, nevertheless, has come from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an armed group shaped in 2007 which has focused civilians in addition to regulation enforcement personnel, leading to 1000’s of deaths.
The TTP menace
Ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban, the TTP calls for the reversal of the merger of Pakistan’s northwestern tribal areas with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, and a stricter imposition of their interpretation of Islamic legal guidelines within the area.
However the TTP – which unilaterally ended a ceasefire in November 2022 and has since then accelerated its assaults on Pakistan’s safety forces – issued a press release after the Besham assault, saying it had no half in it.
This, Firdous mentioned, might level to the involvement of religiously impressed armed teams and people who don’t declare affiliation with any established armed teams.
“The jihadist freelancers, the Pakistani military believe, are handled by hostile intelligence agencies, a term usually applied to allude to neighbouring India,” Firdous, who can be the founding editor of The Khorasan Diary, a non-partisan analysis platform, advised Al Jazeera.
The safety analyst additionally says that whereas nearly all “jihadist armed factions” in Afghanistan and Pakistan have been anti-China because of its crackdown on its Uighur minority, the rulers of Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban, have been quiet.
“The Afghan Taliban, after they took charge of the country, have remained silent on the subject, but the groups operating under the Taliban umbrella don’t agree, and they see China as an oppressor of Muslims,” Firdous mentioned. “Thus, if individuals associated with larger groups have attacked the Chinese, there are no official claims, which can perhaps explain why TTP denied its involvement in the attack.”
Fahd Humayun, an assistant professor of political science at Tufts College in america, mentioned he believes that the Besham assault was carried out by both a “TTP affiliate or ISKP” and was clearly designed to focus on the Pakistan-China relationship to boost the prices for international governments and personal corporations to spend money on Pakistan.
“While the TTP has issued a statement denying its involvement in the attack, it is worth remembering it has incentives to maintain plausible deniability on account of its relationship with the Afghan Taliban, which would be opposed to targeting the Chinese,” Humayun advised Al Jazeera. “This aligns with the goals of such armed organisations of challenging the writ of the state and fostering internal destabilisation.”
Baloch anti-Chinese language sentiments
On the identical time, Firdous mentioned Baloch rebel teams see China as a superpower with an expansionist agenda, which is taking away their assets with out their consent.
“The groups indiscriminately threaten Pakistani military as well as foreign investors, particularly Chinese nationals, that have been attacked quite a few times over the years now,” he added.
With growing exercise seen in Balochistan by the insurgent teams, Firdous mentioned the suicide squads of the BLA’s armed wing have carried out “three major attacks using more than 24 suicide bombers” this yr alone, which he says indicators a shift in technique.
“They have moved from hit and run to direct assaults on bases of Pakistani security forces. This trend indicates increasing recruitment within the ranks of the Baloch insurgent groups,” Firdous mentioned.
He says it’s “crucial” for the federal government to prioritise the event and welfare of Balochistan, guaranteeing that the province advantages from its personal assets and that the native inhabitants is given a chance to take part within the decision-making processes that have an effect on their lives.
“Until these issues are addressed, the Baloch insurgency is likely to continue and pose a significant challenge to the economic stability and security of Balochistan and the rest of the country,” Firdous mentioned.
