Regardless of the return of JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar, the BJP-led Nationwide Democratic Alliance (NDA) is more likely to see a drop in seats within the Bihar Lok Sabha election, successful 32 of the 40 seats, as per India As we speak’s Temper of the Nation opinion ballot.
The INDIA bloc, which includes the Congress, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD and Left, is more likely to improve its tally and win eight seats.
The Temper of the Nation’s February 2024 version is predicated on a survey of 35,801 respondents in all Lok Sabha seats. The ballot was carried out between December 15, 2023, and January 28, 2024. Well being warning: Opinion polls can get it unsuitable.
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The Temper of the Nation ballot was carried out between December 15, 2023 and January 28, 2024 and therefore, does not have in mind the current political developments in the previous few weeks and consequent modifications in alliance arithmetic.
In 2019, the BJP, JD(U) and undivided Lok Janashakti Celebration (LJP) contested the Lok Sabha elections collectively, successful 39 of the 40 seats. The BJP gained 17, JD(U) 16 and LJP six seats, dealing a blow to the Opposition. The Congress gained just one seat, with the RJD drawing a clean.
When it comes to vote share, the NDA is more likely to see a marginal drop to 52 per cent from the 53 per cent it garnered within the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The Opposition bloc is more likely to profit, seeing an increase in vote share by seven proportion factors from the 31 per cent it secured in 2019.
This time, the NDA in Bihar must accommodate a number of smaller events throughout seat-sharing talks. Whereas Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) was a part of the NDA in 2019, the LJP is not a single occasion. There are two factions — one headed by Chirag Paswan and one other by his uncle and Union Minister Pashupati Kumar Paras. Furthermore, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) of Jitan Ram Manjhi and Rashtriya Lok Janta Dal of Upendra Kushwaha are additionally now with the BJP. It stays to be seen if the BJP and JD(U) resolve to contest a lesser variety of seats to accommodate its allies.
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