An fascinating and detailed put up, by a really educated lawyer. There are some components that I might doubtless method otherwise (although I say this tentatively, not having targeted on the problem myself in as a lot detailed as others have), however it appears a lot value studying. I additionally hope to hyperlink within the coming days to materials from others expressing different views [UPDATE: see, e.g., this post linking to two Samuel Moyn articles]. Here is an excerpt from Unikowsky’s put up (learn the entire thing for the detailed evaluation):
Now appears to be an excellent time to revisit my put up from the long-ago period of September, wherein I pegged the probabilities of the Supreme Court docket disqualifying Trump at 10%. In view of this current growth, I am going to up the chances to twenty%—nonetheless low, however not that low. 13-seed-beats-a-4-seed low. Completely throughout the realm of risk.
Breaking that down, I might give a 15% likelihood that the Supreme Court docket affirms the Colorado Supreme Court docket. I might give an extra 5% likelihood that the Supreme Court docket vacates the judgment whereas leaving the door open to future Part 3 litigation, after which disqualifies Trump in a future case.
And whereas I am throwing arbitrary possibilities on the wall, this is my tackle the chances of how the Supreme Court docket will get rid of the Colorado case:
- 5%: The Court docket denies certiorari or the case in any other case goes away earlier than the Supreme Court docket decides it.
- 40%: The Court docket reverses the Colorado Supreme Court docket, holding that, as a matter of regulation, Trump is not disqualified beneath Part 3.
- 40%: The Court docket vacates the Colorado Supreme Court docket’s choice in a fashion that leaves the door open to future Part 3 litigation.
- 15%: The Court docket affirms the Supreme Court docket of Colorado.
My reasoning follows, as they are saying….