On Monday, an settlement signed within the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Muse Bihi Abdi of the breakaway republic of Somaliland preceded a stunning announcement that has already set the tone for interstate relations within the Horn of Africa this yr.
The memorandum of understanding was for the leasing of 20km (12 miles) of Somaliland’s coastline to landlocked Ethiopia. In alternate, Somaliland will obtain shares in its neighbour’s flagship provider, Ethiopian Airways – and obtain formal recognition as a sovereign state.
Worldwide recognition has been a long-sought aim for Somaliland, a area in northern Somalia that has loved de facto independence since 1991. However the groundbreaking settlement has created shockwaves within the area and fury in Somalia, which views it as a hostile violation of Somalia’s sovereignty.
“As a government, we have condemned and rejected the illegal infringement of Ethiopia into our national sovereignty and territorial integrity yesterday,” Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud mentioned in an announcement on X shortly after convening an emergency cupboard session on Tuesday. “Not an inch of Somalia can or will be signed away by anybody.”
In Ethiopia, the place for a lot of 2023 the federal government careworn the financial want for a seaport and even subtly hinted at probably invading Eritrea for entry to the Purple Sea, the deal is being portrayed as a victory.
However the phrases of that victory differ for Ethiopia and Somaliland, and that might additional complicate the state of affairs within the coming days.
Whereas Somaliland insists that recognition has already been agreed upon and settled, Addis Ababa has been reluctant to firmly tackle the matter of statehood. In a broadcast communique, the federal government mentioned it had but to formally recognise Somaliland. However social media posts by Ethiopian Ministry of Overseas Affairs official Mesganu Arga this week seem to assist Somaliland’s interpretation of the deal.
The anomaly of the messaging continues to gasoline hypothesis. A draft of the settlement has but to be revealed, however all indications counsel that it will all however nullify a 2018 tripartite treaty cementing ties between Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea, particulars of which had been equally by no means made public.
![Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed attend the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding agreement, that allows Ethiopia to use a Somaliland port, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, January 1, 2024. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri](https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2024-01-01T162829Z_1867971205_RC2295A8VGCC_RTRMADP_3_ETHIOPIA-SOMALILAND-1704139450.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C493)
Stress or patriotism?
Ethiopian officers have been way more keen to talk of the advantages the settlement is claimed to have secured.
“The agreement is mutually beneficial, and Ethiopia will share military and intelligence experience with Somaliland, so the two states can collaborate on protecting joint interests,” Redwan Hussein, Abiy’s nationwide safety adviser, mentioned on the occasion asserting the settlement. “To facilitate this, Ethiopia will establish a military base in Somaliland as well as a commercial maritime zone.”
Abiy hopes the settlement can assist kick-start Ethiopia’s revival after a yr of worsening financial woes, inner conflicts and a breakdown in relations with Eritrea. Because the signing of the 2 international locations’ extensively heralded peace treaty in 2018, which helped Abiy land the Nobel Peace Prize a yr later, Ethiopia has been eager to redirect its imports to Eritrean ports.
However this has by no means materialised.
“Previously, Abiy had cultivated a personal relationship with [Eritrean President] Isaias Afewerki for access to the Red Sea, but the Pretoria agreement has seen it stumble,” writer and researcher Mohamed Kheir Omer explains, referring to the 2022 mediated peace course of that ended Ethiopia’s conflict in its northern area of Tigray. Eritrea, whose troops had been allied with Ethiopia in that battle, opposed the deal.
Domestically, battle with Faro militiamen in Amhara and unrest in Oromia has weakened key assist bases for Abiy. Failure to make funds on Ethiopia’s eurobonds on the finish of 2023 has additionally heightened strain on the prime minister.
So there are whispers within the Horn of Africa and in international circles that he has turned to the favored transfer of getting port entry for Africa’s second most populous nation to shore up his assist.
There are additionally home woes in Somaliland, which has recognized relative stability for many years. The enclave is fighting an rebellion by native clan militia who pushed its forces out of the disputed city of Las Anod in August.
That battle is seen as a blow to Somaliland’s hopes for recognition, which had been pinned on sustaining stability in a functioning state. However some observers mentioned it’s unclear if the battle factored into Bihi’s resolution to signal the settlement in Addis Ababa.
“It would be too speculative to link the agreement to Somaliland’s current domestic issues, considering its persistent pursuit of international recognition since 1991,” Muhammad Abdi Duale, founder and senior editor of the Somali information portal Horn Diplomat, instructed Al Jazeera. “Somaliland … established diplomatic ties with Ethiopia long before the port deal was announced.”
![A military truck armed with an anti-aircraft machine gun drives past during a street parade to celebrate the 24th self-declared independence day for the breakaway Somaliland nation from Somalia in capital Hargeysa, May 18, 2015.](https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2015-05-18T120000Z_917228365_GF10000099267_RTRMADP_3_SOMALIA-POLITICS.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C513)
Ethiopia’s quest for a port
Diplomatic ties between them date again to the Eighties when Ethiopia supported Somaliland insurgent fighters who helped win its de facto independence in 1991, the identical yr Ethiopia turned landlocked after Eritrea’s profitable conflict of independence.
Ethiopia continued to make use of Eritrea’s Purple Sea ports till the 2 states severed ties and fought a 1998-2000 border conflict, which killed 70,000 individuals.
Since then, Ethiopia has used Djibouti’s port as its primary commerce conduit, however the billions Djibouti is believed to cost Ethiopia yearly in port charges has had it exploring options in Sudan, Somaliland and Kenya for the reason that mid-2000s.
Agreements between Ethiopia and Somaliland over the usage of its Berbera port date way back to 2005, however points together with logistics and potential hurt to relations with Mogadishu have prevented Addis Ababa from implementing a wholesale shift from Djibouti.
In 2017, Ethiopia acquired shares in Berbera port as a part of a deal involving Emirati logistics administration firm DP World to broaden the port and switch it right into a profitable commerce gateway catering to the wants of 119 million Ethiopians. On the time, Somalia denounced the deal as unlawful. Ethiopia didn’t observe by means of on commitments and finally misplaced its stake by 2022.
Regardless of this historical past and the commonly heat relations between authorities in Addis Ababa and Hargeisa, Addis Ababa had by no means brazenly thought of granting Somaliland full recognition.
Even now, Redwan has careworn that the settlement signed this week is just a place to begin for negotiations – with no specified timetable – that will require in depth deliberations and approval of each parliaments.
Nonetheless, the opportunity of Ethiopia changing into the primary state to formally acknowledge Somaliland’s independence threatens to break diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, two states with a prolonged historical past of army battle and animosity.
A brand new pressure in relations
After Somali independence in 1960 and till the top of the Chilly Struggle, the standing of Ethiopia’s Somali area, its second largest by space, has been hotly contested between the 2 international locations.
The area, also called Ogaden, is dwelling to ethnic Somalis, who make up about 7 % of Ethiopia’s inhabitants. It has witnessed quite a few conflicts. One was the Ogaden Struggle from 1977 to 1978, which killed tens of hundreds of individuals earlier than Ethiopia, with the help of Soviet army advisers and Cuban troops, reasserted dominance over the land.
Beneath the governments of Ethiopia’s Mengistu Hailemariam and Somali President Siad Barre, each international locations supported insurgent factions in one another’s international locations, which might go on to weaken and finally result in the overthrow of each leaders by 1991.
Somalia has by no means regained the soundness it knew through the Barre period. Swathes of the nation at the moment are beneath the management of fighters from al-Qaeda offshoot al-Shabab.
A substantial section of Ethiopian troops has been a part of the African Union peacekeeping mission mandated to struggle the rebels in Somalia. Their semi-permanent presence within the nation since 2006 has fuelled additional resentment.
So Monday’s settlement has solely additional strained fragile relations between the neighbours.
“This is by far the most egregious violation of the sovereignty of Somalia by a foreign country in about a decade and a half,” Abdi Aynte, a Somali politician and former minister of planning, instructed Al Jazeera. “The last country to have violated Somalia’s sovereignty was Ethiopia when it invaded in 2006, which ended disastrously. [The 2006 invasion] in fact led to the rise of al-Shabab, the most violent militant group in the region, so you can only imagine what this could do in Somalia and across the region.”
One other politician, lawmaker Abdirahman Abdiskakur, has known as for the African Union’s headquarters to be moved away from Ethiopia, based on the Somali Nationwide Information Company.
With army motion unfeasible, Somalia will probably use formal diplomatic channels on the AU or United Nations to stop any implementation of the settlement. So far, the European Union and the USA have issued statements expressing assist for Somalia’s place.
The stance of different influential gamers within the area isn’t as clear but.
“It’s possible that the UAE, which has cordial relations with both Ethiopia and Somaliland, may have encouraged the parties to proceed with the deal,” Mohamed defined. “The UAE is ambitious to have presence in ports along the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. With the Rapid Support Force [paramilitary] it supports gaining ground in Sudan, the UAE may be keen on consolidating its gains in the region.”
In the meantime, Israel’s bombardment of the Gaza Strip has had a ripple impact, together with most just lately, Houthi insurgent assaults on ships within the Purple Sea, impacting the strategic Dangerous al-Mandeb Strait.
With each areas simply off Somaliland’s coast, the New Yr’s Day settlement in Addis Ababa may set off extra than simply financial exercise in Ethiopia’s newest quest for a seaport.