Warsaw, Ukraine – On the primary anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine final February, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki paid a shock go to to Kyiv.
Standing subsequent to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a khaki jacket to match the Ukrainian president’s wartime fashion, he introduced with him the primary supply of Leopard tanks, a solidarity gesture worthy of neighbour.
However because the struggle enters a 3rd 12 months, relations between Ukraine and Poland stay tense because the allies’ divergent financial pursuits have come to the fore.
Nobody expects grandiose expressions of assist.
As an alternative, the February 24 anniversary will happen amid extended protests on the Poland-Ukraine border by Polish farmers who say the market has been flooded with low cost agricultural merchandise from Ukraine.
“Week after week, Poland is killing Ukraine’s European future,” the European Pravda, considered one of Ukraine’s most information retailers, wrote in January.
‘Project Friendship’
After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Poland welcomed greater than one million Ukrainian refugees who crossed the border with out paperwork and instantly accessed social advantages. Warsaw additionally equipped Kyiv with Soviet-era navy gear it had left in its reserves and flourished into Ukraine’s staunchest advocate amongst Western nations.
“The Russian invasion in late February 2022 brought the two nations and governments much closer. At the time, no questions were asked. We rushed to help Ukrainians,” stated Bartosz Cichocki, Poland’s ambassador to Ukraine, who stayed in Kyiv following Russia’s invasion as the one NATO and EU ambassador. “Whereas they fought, we took care of their households and offered them with ammunition. It was a struggle for survival and a interval of nice solidarity and unity.
“Unfortunately, most Western capitals were convinced that this war would end in a few days and there was no point in sending tanks, ammunition, or other weapons, because the Russians would soon announce victory. Poland stood out in this context.”
Over the next months, Polish officers made extra symbolic gestures.
Morawiecki was a part of the primary international delegation to go to Kyiv after the invasion, whereas Poland’s President Andrzej Duda reportedly had a direct line with Zelenskyy within the first months of the struggle.
Poland was additionally the chief of the European initiative. Initially opposed by Germany, it went on to offer Ukraine with the Leopard tanks.
It appeared as if the Poland-Ukraine tandem, united by sturdy anti-Russian sentiment, was there to remain.
The tip of the honeymoon
In line with Poland at Struggle, a brand new guide by Polish reporter Zbigniew Parafianowicz based mostly on interviews with officers and decision-makers, relations between the 2 nations started to deteriorate when a Ukrainian stray missile fell on Poland’s japanese city of Przewodow, killing two.
Regardless of all of the proof on the contrary, Zelenskyy insisted that the missile was Russian, which sowed the primary seeds of mistrust between the allies, the creator suggests.
The dispute rattling Polish farmers on the import of Ukrainian grain has additionally dampened ties.
In Could 2023, Poland, together with different Central European states, banned imports citing safety of the pursuits of native farmers, a transfer solid by Ukraine as a stab within the again.
In response, on the United Nations Normal Meeting in September, Zelenskyy accused Poland of serving to Moscow’s trigger.
“It was an insult not only to [the governing Law and Justice – PiS – leader Jaroslaw] Kaczyński and PiS, but to the Polish political class, and the Polish political leadership that has supported Ukraine unconditionally,” Parafianowicz advised Al Jazeera.
New opening?
With Polish parliamentary elections in mid-October 2023 approaching, the struggle for Ukraine-sceptic voters amongst right-wing events was in full swing. Polish management made positive to not current itself as weak or serving Ukraine on the expense of home pursuits.
In Kyiv, many noticed the anti-Ukrainian flip as a part of the election marketing campaign. On the similar time, hopes have been excessive that if the opposition Civic Platform wins, Polish-Ukrainian relations would take pleasure in a brand new starting.
“Commentators and decision-makers in Ukraine thought that this was a matter of the election campaign only. And when the elections passes and both PiS and [the far-right party] Konfederacja lose, the situation will change,” stated Sergiy Gerasymchuk, deputy director of the Ukrainian Prism analytical centre.
However the opposition’s victory didn’t deliver substantial change. Whereas new Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited Ukraine in January and expressed additional solidarity within the struggle towards Russia, he made clear that Poland’s financial pursuits will stay his precedence.
“It became clear that notwithstanding the composition of the Polish government, there is a need for negotiations. There is a need to look for compromises,” Gerasymchuk stated.
Return of Realpolitik
“There is no collapse of Polish-Ukrainian relations,” Parafianowicz advised Al Jazeera. “What we see is a realist turn … Ukrainians have begun to realise that Poland is going to assertively defend its economic interests.”
Each economies boast sturdy agriculture and transport sectors, which means variations in these areas may appear inevitable.
Ukraine is prone to work on extending its cooperation with Europe, whereas Poland will proceed to guard its market from doable destructive influences of Ukrainian competitors.
In line with surveys by the Polish Mieroszewski Centre and Ukrainian Data Sapiens, in October 2023, 67 p.c of Ukrainians thought positively of Poles. Three months later, the quantity fell to 44.5 p.c. The survey’s authors cited border protests as the first issue.
However Gerasymchuk remained optimistic.
For him, Poland, together with Lithuania, continues to be Ukraine’s most loyal ally.
“The European Union is not only about realms where we are all on the same page, but also about economics where we may have different interests,” he stated. “Notwithstanding different interests, however, I do hope that the common threat that exists in the northeast will hold all Central Europe together.”