After greater than a decade of intense lobbying, Somalia has been admitted into the East African Group (EAC). After ratification by the Somali Federal Parliament, the membership will turn into official.
The appliance course of, began by former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed in 2011, had been lengthy and arduous with some member states allegedly hesitant to carry Somalia into the fold.
The method lastly yielded fruit this 12 months after the present president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, appointed a particular envoy to speed up the admission course of not lengthy after he got here into workplace in August 2022 for a second time. Mohamud, who was additionally president from 2012 to 2017, was a key backer of regional integration throughout his first time period.
“We are a significant country in the region which can contribute a lot, and we will also benefit from them,” Mohamud mentioned as he landed in Mogadishu after an EAC summit in Arusha, Tanzania, the place Somalia was admitted into the bloc on Friday.
The president has mentioned Somalia’s membership may also profit EAC members Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania.
Critics of the transfer mentioned the admission of Somalia, a rustic of greater than 17 million individuals and a protracted historical past of battle, may introduce safety challenges for the bloc, which now has a mixed inhabitants of greater than 300 million individuals, or a fourth of Africa’s inhabitants.
Nonetheless, specialists argued that Somalia has taken important strides in its battle towards the armed group al-Shabab and level to safety challenges in different EAC members such because the DRC, the place at the least 120 armed teams are preventing in its unstable east, and South Sudan, which has been out and in of a civil warfare since earlier than its independence.
Challenges and opportunities
The EAC was stablished in 2000 and is headquartered in Arusha. Its mission has been to foster economic growth by, among other things, eliminating customs duties among member states. It established a common market in 2010.
Somalia’s primary economic activities are livestock and agriculture, and they have proven to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Livestock remains Somalia’s main export, followed by bananas, fish, hides and skin, and charcoal, but the country is believed to have potential offshore resources like oil and gas.
Since 1991 when Somalia’s government collapsed, leading to three decades of political instability and the rise of al-Shabab, the country’s trade volume with its neighbours shrank rapidly.
Still, analysts said, Somalia, which has Africa’s longest coastline and an estimated two million citizens in the diaspora, is ripe for economic integration with its neighbours.
“I think EAC countries also see Somalia’s … successful investments by Somalis in EAC countries,” Mohamed Abdi Waare, political analyst and a former president of Somalia’s Hirshabelle state, told Al Jazeera. “They also see its vast blue economic potential in its long coastline, the opportunities to participate in the reconstruction of Somalia and to leverage Somalia links with its diaspora, its links with the Middle East and its strategic location.”
“With massive natural resources, the rebuilding and reconstruction boom after the defeat of al-Shabab, Somalia will provide an excellent opportunity for regional investment in its blue economy, its infrastructural rehabilitation and its real estate and construction industries,” he added.
However, not everyone is on board with the integration, even within the Horn of Africa nation.
Friday’s announcement has become contentious among Somalis. Many have described the integration as rash or too early.
One of them is Abdirahman Abdishakur, the presidential envoy for humanitarian coordination, who said EAC membership is different from that in other bodies like the African Union (AU), Intergovernmental Authority on Development, Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Conference.
“We understand that all [those bodies were] fashioned for political, peace and improvement cooperation, however the EAC bloc is completely different and was primarily fashioned for financial and commerce functions,” Abdishakur, who can also be a member of parliament, informed Al Jazeera. “For Somalia, we don’t have goods, services and economic ideology to bring to the table.”
“Almost every Somali middle-class [citizen] bought an apartment and has their family in Nairobi, and the real estate is booming, which signals [an] advantage for Kenya’s economic growth and other countries want the same,” he mentioned. “It’s an added advantage [to member states] for Somalia to join the bloc, but we are not gaining much.”
He added that Somalia may very well be higher off becoming a member of the bloc sooner or later if the nation’s management may present sources, power and concepts to stabilise the nation first.
There are additionally different challenges.
After its accession, Somalia is required to place parts of the treaty into regulation inside six months of signing the doc.
In a report launched this month, the Heritage Institute, a Mogadishu-based assume tank, confused that this may very well be robust to do and thus hinder Somalia from being an efficient member of the EAC. This, the report mentioned, was because of the nation’s poor observe file on governance, human rights, rule of regulation and socioeconomics. Moreover, “constant friction between the Somali federal government and member states” may additionally hinder easy ratification of the treaty in parliament, the report mentioned.
“Any infrastructure that Somalia lacks will only delay the part of the integration for which such infrastructure is needed,” Bashir Sheikh-Ali, a senior authorized fellow on the Heritage Institute and the writer of the report, informed Al Jazeera.
As an example, the EAC expects associate states to have dispute decision boards for interstate issues inside the bloc, Sheikh-Ali mentioned. With out an unbiased judiciary, Somalia might not be capable to absolutely take part or profit from the bloc’s binding resolutions, he mentioned.
“If the Somali government takes the creation of an independent judiciary seriously, Somalia will have a shot at having a full-fledged government, which should lead to a better environment for people in all aspects of their lives,” he added.
The institute recommended in its report that the nation create a complete threat minimisation plan and safe a protracted interval of treaty implementation.
Battle decision
Lately, relations have soured between Somalia and its autonomous area of Somaliland over the disputed metropolis of Las Anod. A few of the EAC members have a diplomatic presence in each territories, and it stays to be seen how the bloc would assist preserve the peace after Hargiesa, capital of the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, beforehand shunned Kampala’s effort to mediate with it and Mogadishu.
Beforehand, Somalia was embroiled in a diplomatic rift with Kenya – the one bloc member that instantly borders it – over a maritime dispute. The previous requested the Worldwide Court docket of Justice (ICJ) to rule on the case after out-of-court negotiations between the 2 nations failed.
Though Kenya refused to acknowledge the ICJ ruling in 2021 that favoured Somalia, specialists mentioned the 2 international locations now have a platform to resolve any future disputes.
“For the Kenyan side, there was no avenue to resolve the issue, but now after the admission of Somalia to the East African Community, there is hope any future dispute between the two countries can be resolved through the mechanisms of the economic bloc,” mentioned Abdullahi Abdi, an analyst on Horn of Africa affairs.
Indicators of that new concord may manifest quickly sufficient.
In June, the AU Transition Mission in Somalia, beforehand often called the AU Mission in Somalia, started winding down its peacekeeping mission. Established in 2017, its mandate absolutely ends subsequent 12 months. Hundreds of the AU peacekeepers got here from three EAC members.
Analysts imagine that Somalia’s accession will solely improve its neighbours’ want to deal with eliminating the armed group al-Shabab. The EAC has deployed a regional drive to the DRC, the final member to hitch, and will properly do the identical for Somalia.
If that results in the decimation of al-Shabab, which is notorious for its resilience, then Somalia’s admission into the EAC may change into a masterstroke not only for the nation but additionally the area, they mentioned.
