Islamabad, Pakistan — When Pakistan’s 19-member new cupboard took oath on March 11, one man stood out within the lineup: Muhammad Aurangzeb, a political outsider tasked with the problem of steering the nation out of its financial woes.
Aurangzeb, a veteran banker who beforehand headed certainly one of Pakistan’s largest business banks, Habib Financial institution Restricted (HBL), has been given the reins of a $350bn financial system over a number of different contenders, together with the four-time finance minister Ishaq Dar.
A graduate of the Wharton College of Enterprise on the College of Pennsylvania, Aurangzeb additionally labored in main worldwide banks, comparable to Citibank and JP Morgan, earlier than his six-year stint on the HBL.
A twin nationwide, Aurangzeb needed to relinquish his Dutch nationality to carry a public workplace in Pakistan. Whereas he isn’t a member of the parliament as but, based on the nation’s guidelines, he has six months to turn out to be a parliamentarian with the intention to proceed as a federal minister.
Mr. Muhammad Aurangzeb formally took over the duty as Finance Minister of Pakistan after taking oath on the Presidency, as we speak. pic.twitter.com/RSBhulbLwl
— Ministry of Finance, Authorities of Pakistan (@Financegovpk) March 11, 2024
Aurangzeb will not be the primary banker to turn out to be Pakistan’s finance minister. Earlier than him, Shaukat Aziz held the place for eight years (1999-2007) below Normal Pervez Musharraf’s tenure, earlier than turning into a primary minister.
Later, below the federal government of former prime minister Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), banker Shaukat Tarin was given the portfolio which he held for one yr (2021-2022) earlier than the PTI authorities was eliminated by means of a parliamentary vote of no-confidence in April 2022.
Aurangzeb’s appointment comes at a essential time when the nation faces extreme financial challenges, as he works with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) authorities. Sharif and his PMLN got here to energy after forming a coalition authorities following the current February 8 elections, which had been marred by allegations of widespread rigging.
Considered one of Aurangzeb’s first duties, say analysts, will likely be to urgently negotiate a brand new Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) mortgage programme after the expiry of the present $3bn, nine-month-long settlement in April.
A brand new mortgage programme with the worldwide lender is important for the nation which is presently burdened by greater than $130bn – at the very least a 3rd of its gross home product – in exterior money owed. Pakistan was scheduled to repay $24bn by June this yr however managed to safe some aid from bilateral collectors by means of rollovers. The nation now has to pay practically $5bn earlier than the tip of the fiscal yr in June.
In the meantime, Pakistan’s present overseas foreign money shares stand at a paltry $7.8bn, sufficient to cowl nearly eight weeks of imports.
Its foreign money has devalued by greater than 50 p.c within the final two years, whereas inflation, presently at greater than 23 p.c, shot as much as practically 40 p.c in 2023, with a speedy enhance in vitality tariffs in addition to the worth of primary meals commodities.
Many observers imagine that Aurangzeb’s expertise with international banks and publicity to worldwide monetary markets is essential, contemplating Pakistan’s debt challenges.
Sajid Amin Javed, a senior economist related to the Sustainable Improvement Coverage Institute in Islamabad (SDPI) mentioned Aurangzeb’s appointment is a sign from the federal government that it’s dedicated to introducing financial reforms – regardless that they could be politically unpopular.
“Partially, this may also be a step to dilute the perception that the PDM government could not deliver in the past,” he informed Al Jazeera, referring to a coalition that Sharif led briefly after the elimination of Imran Khan’s authorities, and whose transient tenure coincided with skyrocketing inflation and mounting financial struggles for Pakistanis.
However Aurangzeb will want greater than his background to reach his job, instructed Karachi-based economist Khurram Schehzad.
“The key point is not necessarily who the finance minister is, but rather, what would the person do, what their vision is, and what long-term thinking they are bringing to the table,” Schehzad informed Al Jazeera.
Islamabad-based Javed of the SDPI says these are difficult occasions for any finance minister however Aurangzeb’s lack of political baggage may work in his favour.
“We may see a more reforms-focused engagement with [the] IMF instead of political balancing,” Javed mentioned, referring to pressures from voter lobbies towards reforms that conventional politicians usually grapple with. Most significantly, he brings recent considering on financial coverage conduct. Given his international expertise, he could go a bit deeper on overhauling of financial coverage and nation may even see a renewed give attention to financial development.”
Karachi-based economist Ammar Habib Khan, whereas acknowledging Aurangzeb’s expertise in finance, informed Al Jazeera {that a} macroeconomist may need been higher suited to the job than a banker.
“Usually, those at the helm [of the government] are unable to understand the long lead time associated with reforms, and the macroeconomic balance that needs to be attained,” he mentioned. “They go for a quick-fix solution, mostly bringing in people that can provide band-aids rather than drive long-tailed reforms.”